Android hasn’t dethroned Symbian (just yet), error in Canalys’ report, says Tomi Ahonen

After the yesterday’s Canalys report that sent the blogosphere into a dizzy, Tomi Ahonen, a well known mobile industry analyst has reported that Android has NOT yet lapsed Symbian’s number. He estimates that the actual number is somewhere in between 26 million to 29 million.

For the Canalys number to be true, Google would have had to average 370,000 Android activations per day – as an AVERAGE – for the quarter – ie 370,000 level should have happened near November 15 – more than 3 weeks before Google announced the 300,000 level. Or even more bizarrely, if Google was activating 300,000 on December 9, they would have had to sell at the level of over 600,000 per day for the last 3 weeks of December.

We have heard at every milestone from 50,000 activations to 100,000 activations to 200,000 activations to 300,000 activations. The speed of growth has been slowing down towards the end of 2010, not increasing. We will definitely hear when Google passes 400,000 activations and by January 31, 2011, that had not yet happened. My math says it should happen in March.

We are awaiting Gartner’s report for now, as they are the ones we trust. Also, the above report is more of an estimate (reports are generally estimates, anyways), but the logic seems to be correct. What’s your take on this?

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